Populism is receiving growing attention in the political landscape of many countries around the world. Since the 2016 U.S. presidential election, populism has evolved from a fringe ideology into a central force reshaping American domestic politics and international behavior. As Donald Trump returned to power in 2024, his diplomatic shift has significantly reshaped the global political landscape. Meanwhile, international political behavior is not driven by a single external threat but rather by the complex interplay between external structural pressures and domestic political dynamics. Therefore, the paper explores the rise and spillover effects of American populism from a two-level game perspective, tracing the root causes of Trump’s return to victory and diplomatic approach. It argues that the populist resurgence narrows the domestic win-set available to U.S. leaders, constraining foreign-policy bargaining and pushing it toward unilateralism, transactional diplomacy, and the erosion of multilateral norms. The analysis integrates domestic drivers, including economic inequality, political polarization, and cultural anxiety, with international consequences, which encompass weakened alliances, global populist diffusion, and democratic regression. Findings reveal how populism operates simultaneously as a domestic mobilization strategy and an international negotiating constraint. Ultimately, the insight contributes to a deeper understanding of how populist pressures transform the logic of two-level games, seeking to offer important implications for the dynamics of policy decision-making and the international actors’ role in the international order.
Research Article
Open Access